Blois Paleoecology Lab

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Author names in bold are Blois Paleoecology Lab members. ✝ indicates student co-author. * indicates co-first authors

Alternatively, you can view Jessica’s Google Scholar profile. Email jblois [at] ucmerced [dot] edu for reprints of any of the articles below.

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In review or revision


Boria, R.B. and J.L. Blois. (in press). Phylogeography within the Peromyscus maniculatus species group: Understanding past distribution of genetic diversity and areas of refugia in western North America. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution.

Fox, N.S., Southon, J.R., Howard, C.M., Takeuchi, G.T., Potze, S., Farrell, A.B., Lindsey, E.L., and J.L. Blois. (in press). Millennial-scale drivers of small mammal isotopic niche dynamics in southern California. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology (pre-print)


Balk, Meghan et al. (including J.L. Blois). (2022). A solution to the challenges of interdisciplinary aggregation and use of specimen-level trait data. iScience 25(10): 105101.

Brock, KM, Chelini, MC, Ayton, C, Madden, IE, Ramos, C, Blois, JL, Pafilis, P, Edwards, DL. (2022). Colour morph predicts social behaviour and contest outcomes in a polymorphic lizard (Podarcis erhardii). Animal Behavior 191: 91-103.


Nieto-Lugilde, D., Blois, J.L., Bonet-Garcia, F.J., Giesecke, T., Gil-Romera, G., and A. Seddon. (2021). Time to better integrate paleo- and neoecological research infrastructures to improve understanding of biodiversity long-term dynamics and to inform future conservation. Environmental Research Letters 16: 095005.

Lawing, A.M., Blois, J.L., Maguire, K.C., Wang, Y., Goring, S., and J.L. McGuire. (2021). Occupancy models reveal regional differences in detectability and improve relative abundance estimations in fossil pollen assemblages. Quaternary Science Reviews 253: 106747.

Boria, R.B., Brown, S.K., Matocq, M., and J.L. Blois. (2021). Genome-wide genetic variation coupled with demographic and ecological niche modeling of the dusky-footed woodrat (Neotoma fuscipes) reveal patterns of deep divergence and widespread Holocene expansion across northern California. Heredity 126:521–536SRA data

Pineda‐Munoz, Silvia, Jukar, Advait M., Tóth, Anikó B., Fraser, Danielle, Du, Andrew, Barr, W. Andrew, Amatangelo, Kathryn L., Balk, Meghan A., Behrensmeyer, Anna K.,  Blois, Jessica, Davis, Matt, Eronen, Jussi T., Gotelli, Nicholas J., Looy, Cindy, Miller, Joshua H., Shupinski, Alexandria B., Soul, Laura C., Villaseñor, Amelia, Wing, Scott, and S. Kathleen Lyons. (2021) Body mass‐related changes in mammal community assembly patterns during the late Quaternary of North America. Ecography 44(1):56-66


Fox, N.S., Veneracion, J., and J.L. Blois. (2020) Are geometric morphometric analyses replicable? Evaluating landmark measurement error and its impact on extant and fossil Microtus classification. Ecology and Evolution 10: 3260-3275.


Knight, C., Blois, J.L., Blonder, B., Macias-Fauria, M., Ordonez, A., and J-C Svenning. (2019). Quantifying environmental mismatch and filtering in North American pollen assemblages since the Last Glacial Maximum. The American Naturalist 195:166-180

Fox, N.S., Takeuchi, G., Farrell, A., and J.L. Blois. (2019) A protocol for differentiating late Quaternary leporid species in southern California with remarks on Project 23 lagomorphs at Rancho La Brea. PaleoBios 36:1-20

Tóth, al. (including J.L. Blois). (2019). Reorganization of surviving mammalian communities after the end-Pleistocene mass extinction. Science 365: 1305-1308

Rapacciuolo, G. and J.L. Blois. (2019). Understanding ecological change across large spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales: integrating data and methods in light of theory. Ecography 42: 1247-1266

Rapacciuolo, G., Rominger, A., Morueta-Holme, N. and J.L. Blois. (2019). Editorial: Ecological Non-equilibrium in the Anthropocene. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 7:428


Sachs,J. P., BloisJ.L., McGee, T., Wolhowe, M., Haberle, S., Clark, G. and P. Atahan. (2018). Southward shift of the Pacific ITCZ during the Holocene. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 33(12): 1383-1395

Boria, R. and J.L. Blois. (2018). The effect of large sample sizes on ecological niche models: Analysis using a North American rodent, Peromyscus maniculatus. Ecological Modelling 386: 83-88 

Williams, J.E. and J.L. Blois. (2018). Range shifts in response to past and future climate change: Can climate velocities and species’ dispersal capabilities explain variation in mammalian range shifts? J. Biogeography 45(9): 2175-2189 

Fitzpatrick, M.C.*, Blois, J.L.*, Williams, J.W., Nieto-Lugilde, D., Maguire, K.C., Lorenz, D. (2018). How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability. Global Change Biology 24(8): 3575-3586 

Williams, J.W., Grimm, E.C., Blois, J.L., Charles, D.F., Davis, E., et al. (2018) The Neotoma Paleoecology Database, a multiproxy, international, community-curated data resource. Quaternary Research 89(1):156-177 

Nieto-Lugilde, D., Maguire, K.C.Blois, J.L.,Williams, J.W. and M.C. Fitzpatrick (2018). Multiresponse algorithms for community-level modelling: Review of theory, applications, and comparison to species distribution modelsMethods in Ecology and Evolution 9(4): 834-848 


Barnosky, A.D., Hadly, E.A., Gonzalez, P., Head, J., Polly, P.D., Lawing, A.M., Eronen, J.T., Ackerly, D.D., Alex, K., Biber, E., Blois, J., Brashares, J., Ceballos, G., Davis, E., Dietl, G.P., Dirzo, H., Doremus, H., Fortelius, M., Greene, H., Hellmann, J., Hickler, T., Jackson, S.T., Kemp, M., Koch, P.L., Kremen, C., Lindsey, E.L., Looy, C., Marshall, C.R., Mendenhall, C., Mulch, A., Mychajliw, A.M., Nowak, C., Ramakrishnan, U., Schnitzler, J., Das Shrestha, K., Solari, K., Stegner, L., Stegner, M.A., Stenseth, N.C., Wake, M.H., and Z. Zhang (2017). Merging Paleobiology With Conservation Biology to Guide the Future of Terrestrial Ecosystems. Science 355:eaah4787 

Blonder, B., Moulton, D., Blois, J., Enquist, B., Graae, B., Macias-Fauria, M., McGill, B., Nogué, S., Ordonez, A., Sandel, B., and J.-C. Svenning (2017). Predictability in community dynamics. Ecology Letters 20: 293-306

Lawing, A.M.*, Eronen, J.T.*, Blois, J.L.*, Graham, C., and P.D. Polly (2017). Community functional trait composition and the effects of non-ecological processes. Ecography  40(5): 651-663

  • The base data are publicly available via Dryad.


Brown, S.K. and J.L. Blois (2016). Ecological insights from ancient DNA. In: eLS. pp. 1-7. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 

Brown, S.K. and J.L. Blois (2016). The complete mitochondrial genome of the dusky-footed woodrat (Neotoma fuscipes) (Rodentia, Cricetidae). Mitochondrial DNA Part B: Resources 1:1, 728-729

Dawson, M.N, Axmacher, J.C, Beierkuhnlein, C., Blois, J.L., Bradley, B.A., Cord, A.F., Dengler, J., He, K.S., Heaney, L.S., Jansson, R., Mahecha, M.D., Myers, C., Nogués-Bravo, D., Papadoupoulou, A., Reu, B., Rodríguez-Sánchez, F., Steinbauer, M.J., and A. Stigall (2016). A second horizon scan of biogeography: Golden Ages, Midas touches, and the Red Queen. Frontiers of Biogeography 8.4: e29770

Lorenz, D.J., Nieto-Lugilde, D., Blois, J.L., Fitzpatrick, M.C., and J.W. Williams (2016). Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD. Scientific Data 3: 160048 

  • The base data are publicly available via Dryad.

Maguire, K.C.*, Nieto-Lugilde, D.*, Blois, J.L., Fitzpatrick, M.C., Williams, J.W., Ferrier, S. and D.J. Lorenz (2016). Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 283(1826): 20152817 

  • The base data are publicly available via Dryad.

Lyons, S.K., Amatangelo, K.L., Behrensmeyer, A.K., Bercovici, A., Blois, J.L., Davis, M., DiMichele, W.A., Du, A., Eronen, J.T., Faith, J.T., Graves, G.R., Jud, N., Labandeira, C., Looy, C.V., McGill, B., Miller, J.H., Patterson, D., Pineda-Munoz, S., Potts, R., Riddle, B., Terry, R., Tóth, A., Ulrich, W., Villaseñor, A., Wing, S., Anderson, H., Anderson, J., Waller, D. and N. J. Gotelli (2016). Holocene shifts in the assembly of terrestrial plant and animal communities implicate increasing human impacts. Nature 529: 80-83 

Listen to Jessica’s interview about this study on Tom Willey’s Down on the Farm radio show here.  It’s the Feb 5th, 2016 episode.

Read Jessica’s take on this paper here.

Correspondence about the paper:

Bertelsmeier, C. & Ollier, S. (2016). Questioning Holocene community shifts. Nature 537: E4–E5

Lyons, S.K., Miller, J.H., Tóth, A., Amatangelo, K.L., Behrensmeyer, A.K., Bercovici, A., Blois, J.L., Davis, M., DiMichele, W.A., Du, A., Eronen, J.T., Faith, J.T., Graves, G.R., Jud, N., Labandeira, C., Looy, C.V., McGill, B., Patterson, D., Pineda-Munoz, S., Potts, R., Riddle, B., Terry, R., Ulrich, W., Villaseñor, A., Wing, S., Anderson, H., Anderson, J., and N. J. Gotelli (2016). Lyons et al. reply. Nature 537: E5–E6 


Maguire, K.C., Nieto Lugilde, D., Fitzpatrick, M.C., Williams, J.W., and J.L. Blois (2015). Modeling species and community responses to past, present, and future episodes of climatic and ecological change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 46: 343-368 

Nieto Lugilde, D., Maguire, K.C., Blois, J.L., Williams, J.W., Fitzpatrick, M.C. (2015). Close agreement between pollen-based and forest inventory-based models of vegetation turnover. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24(8): 905-916 

Gill, J.L., Blois, J.L., Benito, B., Dobrowski, S., Hunter Jr., M.L., and J.L. McGuire (2015). Conserving the stage for 10,000 years: a paleoecological perspective on coarse-filter strategies. Conservation Biology 29: 640–648 

Jackson, S.T. and J.L. Blois (2015). Community ecology in a changing environment: perspectives from the Quaternary. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112: 4915–4921 



Blois, J.L., Gotelli, N., Behrensmeyer, A.K., Faith, J.T., Lyons, S.K., Williams, J.W., Amatangelo, K.L., Bercovici, A., Du, A., Eronen, J.T., Graves, G.R., Jud, N., Labandeira, C., Looy, C.V., McGill, B., Patterson, D., Potts, R., Riddle, B., Terry, R.C., Tóth, A., Villaseñor, A., and S. Wing. (2014). A framework for evaluating the influence of climate, dispersal limitation, and biotic interactions using fossil pollen species associations across the late Quaternary. Ecography 37: 1095-1108 

  • The base data are publicly available via Figshare.

Gavin, D.G., Fitzpatrick, M.C., Gugger, P.F., Heath, K.D., Rodríguez-Sánchez, F., Dobrowski, Hampe, A., Hu, F.S., S., Ashcroft, M.B., Bartlein, P.J., Blois, J.L., Carstens, B.C., Davis, E., de Lafontaine, G., Edwards, M.E., Fernandez, M., Henne, P.D., Herring, E.M., Holden, Z.A., Kong, W., Liu, J., Magri, D., Matzke, N.J., McGlone, M.S., Saltré, F., Stigall, A.L., Tsai, Y.E., Williams, J.W. (2014). Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography. New Phytologist 204:37-54 



Blois, J.L., Zarnetske, P.L., Fitzpatrick, M.C., and S. Finnegan (2013). Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions. Science 341: 499-504 Abstract | Full Text | Reprint

Williams, J.W., Blois, J.L., Gill, J.L., Gonzalez, L.M., Grimm, E.C., Jackson, S.T., Ordonez, A., Shuman, B., and S.D. Veloz (2013). Model systems for a no-analog future:  Species associations and climates during the last deglaciation. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1297: 29-43  

Blois, J.L., Williams, J.W., Fitzpatrick, M.C., Jackson, S.T., and S. Ferrier (2013). Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110:9374-9379 

Blois, JL, Williams, JW, Fitzpatrick, MC, Ferrier, S, Veloz, S, He, F, Liu, Z, Manion, G, and B Otto-Bliesner (2013). Modeling the climatic drivers of spatial patterns in vegetation composition since the Last Glacial Maximum. Ecography 36:460-473. 

  • The downscaled paleoclimate simulations are publicly available here.
  • Featured article on the Ecography facebook page!

Uhen, MD, Barnosky, AD, Bills, B, Blois, JL, Carrasco, MA, Carrano, MT, Erickson, GM, Eronen, J, Fortelius, M, Graham, RW, Grimm, EC, O’Leary, M, Mast, A, Piel, W, Polly, PD, and LK Säilä (2013). From cards catalogs to computers: Databases in vertebrate paleontology. J. Vertebrate Paleontology 33: 13-28. 



Goring, SJ, Williams, JW, Blois, JL, Jackson, ST, Paciorek, CJ, Booth, RK, Marlon, JR, Blaauw, M and JA Christen (2012). Deposition times in the northeastern United States during the Holocene: establishing valid priors for Bayesian age models. Quaternary Science Reviews 48: 54-60 

Veloz, S, Williams, JW, Blois, JL, He, F, Otto-Bliesner, B, and Z Liu (2012). No-analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late Quaternary: implications for 21st-century predictions by species distribution models. Global Change Biology 18: 1698-1713 

Clark, PU, Shakun, JD, Baker, PA, Bartlein, PJ, Brewer, S, Brook, EJ, Carlson, AE, Cheng, H, Kaufman, DS, Liu, Z, Marchitto, TM, Mix, AC, Morrill, C, Otto-Bliesner, B, Pahnke, K, Russell, JM, Whitlock, C, Adkins, JF, Blois, JL, Clark, J, Colman, SC, Curry, WB, Flower, BP, He, F, Johnson, TC, Lynch-Stieglitz, J, Markgraf, V, McManus, JF, Mitrovica, JX, Moreno, PI, and JW Williams (2012). Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109: E1134-42 



Blois, JL, Williams, JW, Grimm, EC, Jackson, ST, & RW Graham (2011). A methodological framework for assessing and reducing temporal uncertainty in paleovegetation mapping from late-Quaternary pollen records. Quaternary Science Reviews 30: 1926-1939 

Williams, JW, Blois, JL, & BN Shuman (2011). Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: case studies from the late Quaternary. Journal of Ecology 99: 664-677 



Blois, JL, McGuire, JL, & EA Hadly (2010). Small mammal diversity loss in response to late-Pleistocene climatic change. Nature 465: 771-774 



Blois, JL & EA Hadly (2009). Mammalian response to Cenozoic climatic change. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 37: 181-208 



Blois, JL, Feranec, RS & EA Hadly (2008). Environmental influences on spatial and temporal patterns of body size variation in California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi). Journal of Biogeography 35:602-613 



Feranec, RS, Hadly, EA, Blois, JL, Barnosky, AD & A Paytan (2007). Radiocarbon dates from the Pleistocene fossil deposits of Samwel Cave, Shasta County, California, USA. Radiocarbon (49): 117-121 



Blois, JL & BS Arbogast (2006).  Conservation genetics of the Sonoma tree vole (Arborimus pomo) based on mitochondrial and AFLP markers.  Journal of Mammalogy 87(5): 950-960 



Blois, J.L. and J.E. Williams (2016). Quaternary biogeography and climate change. In: Kliman, R.M. (ed.), The Encyclopedia of Evolutionary Biology. vol. 3, pp. 395-405. Oxford: Academic Press 

DeNeve Weeks, D., Nye, J., and J.L. Blois (2015). Monotypic species and extinction risk: looking at Lagomorphs. Frontiers of Biogeography 7.2: 35-37

Blois, J.L. and E.A. Hadly (2015). Fossils Predict Biological Responses to Future Climate Change. In T. L. Root , K. R. Hall, M. Herzog, and C. A. Howell, editors. Biodiversity in a Changing Climate: Linking Science and Management in Conservation. University of California Press

Blois, JL (2013). Narrowing the estimates of species migration rates. Frontiers of Biogeography 5(3): 171-172.  ➤

Blois, JL (2012). Stemming “ignorance creep” in paleoecology and biogeography. Frontiers of Biogeography 4(3): 93-94.

Blois, JL (2012). Recent advances in using species distributional models to understand past distributions. Frontiers of Biogeography 3(4): 123-124.

Gill, JL, Blois, JL, Goring, S, Marlon, JR, Bartlein, PJ, Nicoll, K, Scott, AC, and C Whitlock (2012). Letter to the Editor: Paleoecological changes at Lake Cuitzeo were not consistent with an extraterrestrial impact. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(34): E2243.

Blois, JL (2012). Once and Future Giants. What Ice Age Extinctions Tell Us About the Fate of Earth’s Largest Animals by Sharon Levy. Invited book review, Quarterly Review of Biology 87(1): 53-54.

Blois, JL, Goring, S, & A Smith (2011). Integrating paleoecological databases. Eos 92(6): 4


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